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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andruv stadion than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.00 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 53% versus Bohemians 1905 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Bohemians 1905 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.10 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.860 / defence 0.795 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.095. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Sigma Olomouc games / 53 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 1905 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 20% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.

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