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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 41%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Plzen to Andruv stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andruv stadion than their overall form suggests.
Plzen — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sigma Olomouc's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Sigma Olomouc's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 50% versus Plzen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 52% | Plzen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.16 xG and Plzen 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.846 / defence 0.618 | Plzen attack 1.179 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.217. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.618 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Sigma Olomouc games / 51 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Plzen 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 10% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 1 | Plzen 6W • Goals trend: 3.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sigma Olomouc 12 – 16 Plzen • H2H markets: BTTS 89% | Over 2.5 78% | Win rates: Sigma Olomouc 22% / Draw 11% / Plzen 67% • Historical edge: Plzen dominant — 6W from 9 meetings (67% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Plzen (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc as more likely (home 41% / draw 32% / away 27%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.11 goals/game (78% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 2.05 (66% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 89% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 42% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
📈 Recent Form
• Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L • Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W • Sigma Olomouc home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 0.20 | CS 8 • Plzen away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 3 • Form edge: Plzen lead by 1.00 PPG (2.20 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Sigma Olomouc): Poisson projects 1.16 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Plzen): Poisson projects 0.89 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.8 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.05 (66% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~30% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 42% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Plzen on PPG but Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc higher (41% vs 27% for Plzen) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 32% | Plzen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.16 / Plzen 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.846 / def 0.618 | Plzen attack 1.179 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Plzen xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 41% chance of winning, Plzen a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Plzen?
• Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 1 | Plzen 6W • Goals trend: 3.11 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Sigma Olomouc 12 – 16 Plzen • H2H markets: BTTS 89% | Over 2.5 78% | Win rates: Sigma Olomouc 22% / Draw 11% / Plzen 67% • Historical edge: Plzen dominant — 6W from 9 meetings (67% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Plzen (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc as more likely (home 41% / draw 32% / away 27%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.11 goals/game (78% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 2.05 (66% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS tension: H2H BTTS rate 89% but Poisson model rates BTTS at only 42% — current defensive form is suppressing the historical two-way scoring pattern
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Plzen in?
• Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L • Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W • Sigma Olomouc home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 0.20 | CS 8 • Plzen away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 3 • Form edge: Plzen lead by 1.00 PPG (2.20 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Sigma Olomouc): Poisson projects 1.16 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.90 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Plzen): Poisson projects 0.89 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.8 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.05 (66% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~30% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 42% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Plzen on PPG but Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc higher (41% vs 27% for Plzen) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Sigma Olomouc vs Plzen?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture