Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Pardubice at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Pardubice — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pardubice are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Slovácko, 2 for Pardubice and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Pardubice trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 37% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 42% | Pardubice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.48 xG and Pardubice 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.997 / defence 1.101 | Pardubice attack 1.317 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.189. Pardubice have an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Slovácko games / 52 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 32% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 42%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Slovácko dominate the H2H record, yet Pardubice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 40% | Pardubice 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 32% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Slovácko 1.48 / Pardubice 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.997 / def 1.101 | Pardubice attack 1.317 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Pardubice xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovácko vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Slovácko 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Slovácko vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Pardubice part of?
Slovácko vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 32% chance of winning, Pardubice a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Slovácko and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Record (9 meetings): Slovácko 4W | Draws 3 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 1.00x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
32%
3.12
26%
3.89
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Slovácko xG
Total xG
3.21
1.72
Pardubice xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.50
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.72 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 18D 27L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.93 PPG from 57 outings (13W 14D 30L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 0.95 PPG, Pardubice on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 9W 9D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.64 points per game from 28 outings (4W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.95 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 12W 18D 27L in their last 57 games (0.95 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 14D 30L in their last 57 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Pardubice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.29 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 39%, Pardubice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Slovácko) and 54% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 43% of games; Pardubice in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Slovácko's recent matches and 46% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Slovácko's recent games and 54% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovácko cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Pardubice 2-0 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.48 xG and Pardubice 1.72 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Pardubice attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 32% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 42%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Pardubice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 0.95 PPG, Pardubice 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.