Mlada Boleslav 0-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Arena to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Teplice arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Mlada Boleslav, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Teplice — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The historical record gives Mlada Boleslav a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Teplice — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 62% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Teplice 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.41 xG and Teplice 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.095 / defence 1.402 | Teplice attack 0.849 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.240. Data: 51 Mlada Boleslav games / 51 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 35% | Draw 27% | Teplice 38%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Mlada Boleslav dominate the H2H record, yet Teplice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 80% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 35% | Draw 27% | Teplice 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.41 / Teplice 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.095 / def 1.402 | Teplice attack 0.849 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Teplice xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 35% chance of winning, Teplice a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Record (8 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 5W | Draws 1 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.09) and Teplice's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.85x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.70
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.89
1.48
Teplice xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.48 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 14D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (18W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.21 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 6W 9D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (5W 10D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.12 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Teplice have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Teplice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.00 PPG; Teplice away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Teplice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 63%, Teplice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Mlada Boleslav) and 41% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games; Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 52% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 41% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Teplice in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mlada Boleslav's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav and Teplice finished level at 0-0 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.41 xG and Teplice 1.48 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Teplice landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 1.40 against Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 35% | Draw 27% | Teplice 38%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Teplice 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.05 PPG, Teplice 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.