Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slovácko at 0.90 PPG versus Bohemians 1905's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Slovácko, 3 for Bohemians 1905 and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 36% versus Bohemians 1905 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 42% | Bohemians 1905 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.39 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.004 / defence 1.021 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.914 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.201. Data: 51 Slovácko games / 51 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 42% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Slovácko 30% | Bohemians 1905 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 42% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Slovácko 1.39 / Bohemians 1905 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.004 / def 1.021 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.914 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovácko 1 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 42% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
42%
2.35
28%
3.58
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.51
1.12
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.12 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Slovácko have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 17D 26L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 15W 15D 25L from 55 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 0.96 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 8W 7D 12L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.98 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 12W 17D 26L in their last 55 games (0.96 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 15D 25L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovácko's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.33 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
3
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 37%, Bohemians 1905 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Slovácko) and 41% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 44% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Slovácko's recent matches and 41% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Slovácko's recent games and 41% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Slovácko 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Slovácko 1-2 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.39 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 42% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 0.96 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.