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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Slovácko — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Slovácko at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slovácko at 0.90 PPG versus Bohemians 1905's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Slovácko, 3 for Bohemians 1905 and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Slovácko in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.

Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 36% versus Bohemians 1905 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 42% | Bohemians 1905 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.39 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.004 / defence 1.021 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.914 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.201. Data: 51 Slovácko games / 51 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Slovácko 42% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Slovácko 30% | Bohemians 1905 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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