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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs FK Jablonec encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Arnosta Kostala plays host to Pardubice versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pardubice's home record at Stadion Arnosta Kostala: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this season.

FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Pardubice 3W, FK Jablonec 5W, 1D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with FK Jablonec winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus FK Jablonec 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 46% | FK Jablonec 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.11 xG and FK Jablonec 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.835 / defence 1.050 | FK Jablonec attack 1.091 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.232. Data: 51 Pardubice games / 51 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 43%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | FK Jablonec 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 70% | FK Jablonec 30%.

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