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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Zlin make the trip to Stadion Juliska to face Dukla Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Dukla Praha (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dukla Praha at Stadion Juliska this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Zlin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Zlin's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Dukla Praha against 0.80 for Zlin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dukla Praha lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dukla Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 43% versus Zlin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dukla Praha 29% | Zlin 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.21 xG and Zlin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.779 / defence 1.175 | Zlin attack 0.763 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.201. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Dukla Praha games / 21 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 39% | Draw 30% | Zlin 32%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Zlin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dukla Praha are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 50% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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