Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pardubice have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Pardubice are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 44% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 46% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.07 xG and Pardubice 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.690 / defence 1.125 | Pardubice attack 1.323 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.190. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pardubice have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Bohemians 1905 games / 50 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 53%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Pardubice 1.89. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 30% | Pardubice 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.07 / Pardubice 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.690 / def 1.125 | Pardubice attack 1.323 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Pardubice xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 22% chance of winning, Pardubice a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 4W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Pardubice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.69x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.32x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
22%
4.49
24%
4.08
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.84
1.77
Pardubice xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
4%
26.35
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.77 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 15D 24L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.87 PPG from 54 outings (11W 14D 29L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 0.87 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 6W 8D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.46 points per game from 26 outings (2W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pardubice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.91 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 15D 24L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 11W 14D 29L in their last 54 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Pardubice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.00 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Pardubice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 46%, Pardubice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 50% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 38% of games; Pardubice in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 42% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Pardubice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pardubice edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.07 xG and Pardubice 1.77 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.69 / defence 1.12 against Pardubice attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 53%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 46%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG, Pardubice 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.