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Poisson rates Pardubice at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice encounter.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Pardubice have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pardubice away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Pardubice are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 44% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 46% | Pardubice 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.07 xG and Pardubice 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.690 / defence 1.125 | Pardubice attack 1.323 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.190. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pardubice have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Bohemians 1905 games / 50 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 22% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 53%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Pardubice 1.89. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 30% | Pardubice 70%.

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