Bohemians 1905 1-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians 1905 face Dukla Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dukla Praha travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dukla Praha stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Dukla Praha away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 0.70 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Bohemians 1905 2–0 Dukla Praha — a Bohemians 1905 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 73%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 46% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Dukla Praha 41%). Note also that Dukla Praha surrender HT leads in 73% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.724 / defence 1.189 | Dukla Praha attack 0.731 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.127. Bohemians 1905's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Dukla Praha's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 52 games and Dukla Praha's last 52.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.54 | Draw 3.24 | Dukla Praha 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Dukla Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 home games) | Dukla Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.17 / Dukla Praha 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.724 / def 1.189 | Dukla Praha attack 0.731 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dukla Praha xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 39% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.72x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 52 games and Dukla Praha's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.24
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.15
0.98
Dukla Praha xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.98 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 16W 15D 25L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 9W 21D 26L across 56 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.12 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 7W 8D 13L from their last 28 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 3W 11D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.84 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Dukla Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 9W 21D 26L in their last 56 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Dukla Praha away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.04 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
0
Draws
1
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Dukla Praha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Bohemians 1905 1-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Dukla Praha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bohemians 1905) and 43% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 36% of games; Dukla Praha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 46% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 43% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 68% of Dukla Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Dukla Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Dukla Praha 1-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Dukla Praha attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 30%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Dukla Praha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.