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Poisson rates Teplice at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.

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Analysis

Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.

Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Teplice, 1.10 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 49% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Sigma Olomouc 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.56 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.956 / defence 0.859 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.847 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.114. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Teplice games / 52 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 19%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Sigma Olomouc 40% BTTS from recent games.

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