🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dukla Praha face Slavia Praha.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Dukla Praha host Slavia Praha at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dukla Praha — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Slavia Praha's 2.80 PPG return is 2.40 points per game ahead of Dukla Praha's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dukla Praha have won 0, Slavia Praha 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Slavia Praha winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 48% versus Slavia Praha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 40% | Slavia Praha 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.748 / defence 1.124 | Slavia Praha attack 1.324 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.105. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Dukla Praha games / 53 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 19% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 54%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | Slavia Praha 1.85. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Dukla Praha 40% | Slavia Praha 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights