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Clean Sheet Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest clean sheet probability — Sunday 11 May 2025

Our prediction model calculates the probability that each team concedes zero goals based on their defensive strength and the opponent's attack rating. Fixtures at the top of this list have the highest probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet — making them strong candidates for to-nil and correct score markets.

20 matches cleared our threshold on Sunday 11 May 2025. Napoli vs Genoa led the list at 58% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 58% down to 41%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans eight different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the clean sheet market — 55%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

#1 Serie A · Italy
Napoli
2 : 2 FT
Genoa
Win 57%
Draw 30%
Win 14%
Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 68% Napoli Clean Sheet 58%
#2 Premier League · England
Nottingham Forest
2 : 2 FT
Leicester
Win 66%
Draw 21%
Win 12%
Under 2.5 54% BTTS No 59%
#3 Eredivisie · Netherlands
Ajax
0 : 3 FT
NEC Nijmegen
Win 62%
Draw 25%
Win 13%
Under 2.5 55% ✓ BTTS No 57%
#4 Allsvenskan · Sweden
Degerfors IF
1 : 4 FT
Malmo FF
Win 26%
Draw 35%
✓ Win 39%
Under 2.5 77% BTTS No 68%
#5 2. Bundesliga · Germany
Hannover 96
1 : 1 FT
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Win 48%
Draw 31%
Win 21%
✓ Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 59%
#6 Primeira Liga · Portugal
Boavista
1 : 2 FT
FC Porto
Win 16%
Draw 23%
✓ Win 61%
Under 2.5 54% BTTS No 56%
#7 Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
Teplice
1 : 0 FT
Slovácko
✓ Win 53%
Draw 27%
Win 20%
✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 58%
#8 Serie A · Brazil
Sport Recife
0 : 4 FT
Cruzeiro
Win 37%
Draw 35%
Win 28%
Under 2.5 75% ✓ BTTS No 66%
#9 Superettan · Sweden
Kalmar FF
2 : 0 FT
Trelleborg
✓ Win 43%
Draw 31%
Win 26%
✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 63%
#10 Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estrela
0 : 1 FT
AVS
Win 62%
Draw 22%
Win 16%
✓ BTTS No 54%
#11 Serie A · Brazil
Flamengo
1 : 0 FT
Bahia
✓ Win 70%
Draw 19%
Win 11%
Over 2.5 59%
#12 Serie A · Brazil
Atletico-MG
3 : 2 FT
Fluminense
✓ Win 42%
Draw 32%
Win 26%
Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 61%
#13 Serie A · Italy
Hellas Verona
1 : 1 FT
Lecce
Win 24%
Draw 30%
Win 47%
✓ Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 58%
#14 Eliteserien · Norway
Sandefjord
2 : 1 FT
Valerenga
✓ Win 55%
Draw 28%
Win 17%
Under 2.5 54%
#15 K League 1 · South-Korea
Gwangju FC
0 : 1 FT
Jeonbuk Motors
Win 29%
Draw 32%
✓ Win 39%
✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 63%
#16 Serie A · Brazil
Palmeiras
1 : 0 FT
Sao Paulo
✓ Win 40%
Draw 33%
Win 28%
✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%
#17 Süper Lig · Turkey
Sivasspor
0 : 0 FT
Bodrum FK
Win 54%
Draw 25%
Win 21%
✓ Under 2.5 56% ✓ BTTS No 54%
#18 Bundesliga · Germany
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 : 2 FT
FC St. Pauli
Win 60%
Draw 24%
Win 16%
#19 Premier League · Russia
Fakel
0 : 1 FT
Lokomotiv
Win 31%
Draw 39%
Win 31%
✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 63%
#20 La Liga · Spain
Athletic Club
1 : 0 FT
Alaves
✓ Win 56%
Draw 24%
Win 20%

Showing top 20 fixtures by clean sheet probability. Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Clean Sheet — common questions

What does the Clean Sheet market mean?

Clean Sheet settles on whether a match sees at least one team keep a clean sheet. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate clean sheet probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The clean-sheet probability shown here is the probability that a given side concedes zero, from the opponent's expected-goals figure. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Clean Sheet on Sunday 11 May 2025?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Napoli vs Genoa at 58% clean-sheet probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with the highest clean-sheet probabilities of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these clean sheet predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.