Flamengo 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Flamengo face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Bahia travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bahia — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bahia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Flamengo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bahia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Flamengo have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 6 past contests while Bahia have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Flamengo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Flamengo and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bahia trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 57% versus Bahia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.26 xG and Bahia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.457 / defence 0.888 | Bahia attack 1.077 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 0.837. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.457 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Flamengo games / 45 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 70% | Draw 19% | Bahia 11%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Bahia 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 60% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 70% | Draw 19% | Bahia 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 50% | xG Flamengo 2.26 / Bahia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.457 / def 0.888 | Bahia attack 1.077 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.423 / away 0.837 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Bahia xG
50%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Bahia kick off?
Flamengo vs Bahia kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Flamengo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Bahia part of?
Flamengo vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 70% chance of winning, Bahia a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Flamengo and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
Record (6 meetings): Flamengo 6W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Bahia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.46x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.21
11%
9.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Flamengo xG
Total xG
3.06
0.80
Bahia xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
9.07
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
10%
9.59
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
1%
86.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.80 for Bahia, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 39W 19D 18L from 76 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 33L across 76 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 21W 10D 7L from 38 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 8W 8D 22L across 38 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Bahia in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 39W 19D 18L in their last 76 games (1.79 PPG), while Bahia have gone 27W 16D 33L in their last 76 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Bahia away?
Flamengo's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.92 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bahia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Flamengo
0
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 8, Bahia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Bahia?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 53%, Bahia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Flamengo) and 58% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bahia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Flamengo's games and 58% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Flamengo vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Flamengo's recent games and 58% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Bahia tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bahia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Bahia 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.26 xG and Bahia 0.80 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bahia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.46 / defence 0.89 against Bahia attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 70% | Draw 19% | Bahia 11%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.