Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Alaves travel to San Mamés Barria to take on Athletic Club. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Barria this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at San Mamés Barria. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Alaves have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Athletic Club) versus 1.30 (Alaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Athletic Club have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Alaves have managed just 0 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Athletic Club a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Alaves trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 47% versus Alaves 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 40% | Alaves 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.69 xG and Alaves 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.178 / defence 0.707 | Alaves attack 1.047 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.197. Athletic Club's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Athletic Club games / 72 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 56% | Draw 24% | Alaves 20%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Alaves 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Athletic Club 40% | Alaves 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 56% | Draw 24% | Alaves 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Athletic Club 1.69 / Alaves 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.178 / def 0.707 | Alaves attack 1.047 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Alaves xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Alaves kick off?
Athletic Club vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Athletic Club 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Athletic Club vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Alaves part of?
Athletic Club vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 56% chance of winning, Alaves a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Athletic Club and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?
Record (5 meetings): Athletic Club 3W | Draws 2 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Athletic Club and Alaves in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Alaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 1.18x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.16
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.58
0.89
Alaves xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
27.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.89 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Athletic Club come into this having played 72 games, going 35W 24D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.12 PPG from 72 outings (20W 21D 31L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Athletic Club carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Athletic Club's home form reads 22W 12D 2L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.83 points per game from 36 outings (6W 12D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.99 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Alaves
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Alaves in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 35W 24D 13L in their last 72 games (1.79 PPG), while Alaves have gone 20W 21D 31L in their last 72 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Alaves away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.17 PPG; Alaves away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Alaves in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Athletic Club's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Athletic Club
2
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 5, Alaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Alaves?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 50%, Alaves 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Athletic Club) and 47% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Alaves in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 53% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Athletic Club's recent games and 47% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Alaves tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Alaves in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Alaves 1-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.69 xG and Alaves 0.89 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.18 / defence 0.71 against Alaves attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 56% | Draw 24% | Alaves 20%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 40%, Alaves 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.