Hellas Verona 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 47%, yet in-form Hellas Verona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hellas Verona vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Lecce at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lecce — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Lecce's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hellas Verona carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 1 for Lecce and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Lecce winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lecce in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 48% versus Lecce 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 49% | Lecce 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.84 xG and Lecce 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.623 / defence 1.296 | Lecce attack 0.893 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.126. Hellas Verona's attack strength of 0.623 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Hellas Verona games / 73 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 30% | Lecce 47%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Lecce 2.13. Lecce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hellas Verona (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 20% | Lecce 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 30% | Lecce 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Hellas Verona 0.84 / Lecce 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.623 / def 1.296 | Lecce attack 0.893 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Lecce (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Lecce xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Lecce kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Lecce?
Hellas Verona 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Lecce part of?
Hellas Verona vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 24% chance of winning, Lecce a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hellas Verona and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lecce?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 3W | Draws 1 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Lecce in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.62x the league average against Lecce's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
24%
4.24
30%
3.36
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.15
1.30
Lecce xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
15.61
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.30 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 18W 16D 39L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Lecce's form line: 14W 23D 36L from 73 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 0.96 PPG, Lecce on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (10W 9D 17L).
On the road, Lecce have gone 5W 11D 20L from 36 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.77 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Lecce in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 18W 16D 39L in their last 73 games (0.96 PPG), while Lecce have gone 14W 23D 36L in their last 73 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Lecce away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.08 PPG; Lecce away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
4
Draws
1
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Lecce have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Lecce?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 50%, Lecce 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Hellas Verona) and 39% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 36% of games; Lecce in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 44% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 39% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Lecce tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lecce in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Lecce finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.84 xG and Lecce 1.30 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.62 / defence 1.30 against Lecce attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 30% | Lecce 47%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 49%, Lecce 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.96 PPG, Lecce 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.