Sport Recife 0-4 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho plays host to Sport Recife versus Cruzeiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Cruzeiro have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.95 xG and Cruzeiro 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.645 / defence 1.115 | Cruzeiro attack 0.853 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 0.828. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Sport Recife games / 45 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 37% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 28%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Cruzeiro 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cruzeiro's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sport Recife as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sport Recife if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 37% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Sport Recife 0.95 / Cruzeiro 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.645 / def 1.115 | Cruzeiro attack 0.853 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.411 / away 0.828 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cruzeiro xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro?
Sport Recife 0 - 4 Cruzeiro.
Where is Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro part of?
Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 37% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sport Recife and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Cruzeiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Cruzeiro in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Cruzeiro away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.65x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.85x) against Sport Recife's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
37%
2.70
35%
2.85
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.74
0.79
Cruzeiro xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 13.8 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.79 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
1
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Cruzeiro?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Cruzeiro 1-1 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Cruzeiro run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Sport Recife 0-4 at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.95 xG and Cruzeiro 0.79 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sport Recife fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.79 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.65 / defence 1.11 against Cruzeiro attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 37% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 28%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cruzeiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.