Napoli 2-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Napoli face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Napoli host Genoa at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Napoli's home record at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Genoa's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Napoli have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Napoli: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Genoa, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Napoli winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Napoli and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 51% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 51% | Genoa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.37 xG and Genoa 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.253 / defence 0.719 | Genoa attack 0.664 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.130. Napoli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Napoli's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Napoli games / 73 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 57% | Draw 30% | Genoa 14%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Genoa's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 50% | Genoa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 57% | Draw 30% | Genoa 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 32% | xG Napoli 1.37 / Genoa 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.253 / def 0.719 | Genoa attack 0.664 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Napoli (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Genoa xG
32%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Genoa kick off?
Napoli vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Genoa?
Napoli 2 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Napoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Genoa part of?
Napoli vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 57% chance of winning, Genoa a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Napoli and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Genoa?
Record (5 meetings): Napoli 3W | Draws 2 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Napoli and Genoa in?
Napoli (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.25x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 2-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
57%
1.77
30%
3.38
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Napoli xG
Total xG
1.91
0.54
Genoa xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
4%
28.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.3 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Napoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Napoli and 0.54 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Napoli have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 36W 22D 15L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 21W 25D 27L from 73 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 1.83 PPG from 36 outings (19W 9D 8L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 8W 12D 16L from 36 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.03 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 36W 22D 15L in their last 73 games (1.78 PPG), while Genoa have gone 21W 25D 27L in their last 73 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Genoa away?
Napoli's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.83 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Napoli or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genoa in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Napoli go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Napoli
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Genoa?
From 9 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Genoa?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 53%, Genoa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Napoli) and 36% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Genoa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Napoli's recent matches and 47% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Napoli's recent games and 36% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Genoa tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Genoa in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and Genoa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 36, as Napoli and Genoa drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.37 xG and Genoa 0.54 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.25 / defence 0.72 against Genoa attack 0.66 / defence 0.93, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 57% | Draw 30% | Genoa 14%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 51%, Genoa 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.