Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yunnan Yukun vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.

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Full Analysis

Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium plays host to Yunnan Yukun versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Yunnan Yukun have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Yunnan Yukun's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Yunnan Yukun's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Yunnan Yukun 1–5 Qingdao Jonoon — a Qingdao Jonoon win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Qingdao Jonoon 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Yunnan Yukun surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Qingdao Jonoon have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Qingdao Jonoon surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Yunnan Yukun recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.82 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.978 / defence 0.980 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.984 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.895 / away 1.401. Data: built from Yunnan Yukun's last 30 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 48% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.10 | Draw 4.04 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.61. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Yunnan Yukun's last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Yunnan Yukun 70% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Yunnan Yukun 30 games, Qingdao Jonoon 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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