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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Yunnan Yukun's home record at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Yunnan Yukun 1.20 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, Yunnan Yukun show 7W 3D 8L from 18 outings in Super League. They average 1.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 18 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Standings Snapshot

Yunnan Yukun hold the table advantage, sitting 5th with 24 points — 4 positions and 4 points clear of Sichuan Jiuniu in 9th.

At home this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 4W 1D 3L. Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 1D 6L on their travels.

Trading Patterns

Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 75% and Sichuan Jiuniu 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 65% | Sichuan Jiuniu 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.02 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.060 / defence 1.100 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.707 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Yunnan Yukun games / 48 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 60% | Draw 21% | Sichuan Jiuniu 19%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Yunnan Yukun 50% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50%.

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