Yunnan Yukun 4-3 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's home record at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Yunnan Yukun 1.20 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Yunnan Yukun have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Sichuan Jiuniu have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 4–3 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Yunnan Yukun and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 6.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 76% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 65% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.08 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.084 / defence 1.156 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.663 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.314. Data: 49 Yunnan Yukun games / 49 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 62% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 6.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Yunnan Yukun 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 62% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.08 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.084 / def 1.156 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.663 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yunnan Yukun 4 - 3 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 62% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (3 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 3W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.89
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.09
1.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
46.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.01 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Yunnan Yukun have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 13D 18L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 14W 5D 30L from 49 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Yunnan Yukun are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Yunnan Yukun have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (12W 6D 6L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 2D 19L from 24 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.22 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 14W 5D 30L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.75 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Yunnan Yukun have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 4-3 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 67%, Sichuan Jiuniu 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Yunnan Yukun and 58% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Yunnan Yukun's recent matches and 42% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 58% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yunnan Yukun edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-3 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.08 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.66 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 62% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 65%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.