Tianjin Teda 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 46%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shandong Luneng travel to TEDA Football Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda in Super League (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Shandong Luneng's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Shandong Luneng's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Tianjin Teda's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Shandong Luneng have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Tianjin Teda.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Tianjin Teda 1–2 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Shandong Luneng 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Shandong Luneng 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tianjin Teda surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Shandong Luneng have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.56 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.874 / defence 1.095 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.988 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.120. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 36 games and Shandong Luneng's last 36.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 30%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.20 | Draw 4.00 | Shandong Luneng 3.39. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 30% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, matchday 7 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.56 / Shandong Luneng 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.874 / def 1.095 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.988 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Shandong Luneng xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng is a Super League fixture (matchday 7) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 46% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 36 games and Shandong Luneng's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
46%
2.20
25%
4.00
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.78
1.21
Shandong Luneng xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.21 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 14D 22L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 1.68 PPG from 60 outings (28W 17D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.43 PPG, Shandong Luneng on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 15W 9D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.97 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Shandong Luneng (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 17D 15L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.80 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 4-1 Tianjin Teda.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
7
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 43%, Shandong Luneng 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 63% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Tianjin Teda's games and 67% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 63% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 83% of Shandong Luneng's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.56 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.21 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 46% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 30%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Shandong Luneng 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.43 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.