Tianjin Teda 1-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tianjin Teda face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to TEDA Football Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
Tianjin Teda (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Tianjin Teda, 2 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2025, ended Tianjin Teda 0–2 Qingdao Jonoon — a Qingdao Jonoon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.898 / defence 1.112 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.918 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.865 / away 1.120. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 34 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 34.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.14 | Draw 3.97 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.57. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 30% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.55 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.898 / def 1.112 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.918 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.865 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Qingdao Jonoon xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 47% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.90) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.92x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 34 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.97
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.70
1.14
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.14 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 32L across 60 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 15W 9D 6L from their last 30 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 3W 6D 21L across their last 30 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.05 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.80 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon, the earliest from June 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won Qingdao Jonoon 1-4 Tianjin Teda on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 43%, Qingdao Jonoon 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 43% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 43% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 77% of Qingdao Jonoon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.14 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Qingdao Jonoon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.