Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chongqing Tongliang Long host Wuhan Three Towns at Tongliang Long Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.12 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.893 / defence 1.214 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.047 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.955 / away 1.158. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Chongqing Tongliang Long's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 34 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 27%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.70. Chongqing Tongliang Long hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Managers: Chongqing Tongliang Long (Salvador Suay) | Wuhan Three Towns (Deng Zhuoxiang) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • Wuhan Three Towns away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | CS 1
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 52% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.12 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.893 / def 1.214 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.047 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.955 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wuhan Three Towns xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 52% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Wuhan Three Towns?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Wuhan Three Towns in?
• Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L • Wuhan Three Towns away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | CS 1
What do the betting odds say about Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Wuhan Three Towns?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture