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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.

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Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to TEDA Football Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Tianjin Teda (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at TEDA Football Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TEDA Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 4W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 0–2 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Stats

Across 30 matches this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 12W 8D 10L. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.4 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 3-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 30 games (7%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.

Qingdao Jonoon have played 30 games this season, recording 5W 10D 15L. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 5-4-1. Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards per game, 0.20 reds per game.

Tianjin Teda lead on clean sheets this season (8 vs 4). Penalty activity: Tianjin Teda 4/4 vs Qingdao Jonoon 4/4 this season.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 57% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.55 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.898 / defence 1.112 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.918 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.865 / away 1.120. Data: 34 Tianjin Teda games / 34 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 47% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.57. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 30% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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