Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 62%, yet in-form Yunnan Yukun provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Yunnan Yukun to Baoan Stadium in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Yunnan Yukun — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Yunnan Yukun away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Yunnan Yukun's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 home games and Yunnan Yukun's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Yunnan Yukun 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Jul 2025, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 1–3 Yunnan Yukun — a Yunnan Yukun win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 60% and Yunnan Yukun 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 70% | Yunnan Yukun 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sichuan Jiuniu surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Yunnan Yukun have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.29 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.183 / defence 1.047 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.005 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.829 / away 1.128. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 34 games and Yunnan Yukun's last 34.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 62% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 19%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.61 | Draw 5.18 | Yunnan Yukun 5.35. The model has a clear lean to Sichuan Jiuniu (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.29 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yunnan Yukun (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 home games and Yunnan Yukun's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% (last 10 home games) | Yunnan Yukun 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: Baoan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 62% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.29 / Yunnan Yukun 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.183 / def 1.047 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.005 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.829 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Yunnan Yukun xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun FAQs
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Baoan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Sichuan Jiuniu 3 - 4 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Baoan Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 62% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sichuan Jiuniu's attack at 1.18x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 34 games and Yunnan Yukun's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.18
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.47
1.19
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
10%
9.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
2%
52.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.19 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 8W 3D 19L from 30 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Yunnan Yukun, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 10L across 30 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Yunnan Yukun by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sichuan Jiuniu heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 6W 2D 7L from their last 15 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Sichuan Jiuniu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Yunnan Yukun's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across their last 15 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sichuan Jiuniu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.57 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sichuan Jiuniu have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Yunnan Yukun in 73%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu (Home) vs Yunnan Yukun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun Form FAQs
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 8W 3D 19L in their last 30 games (0.90 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.33 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Yunnan Yukun have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
4
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Yunnan Yukun have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Yunnan Yukun 4-3 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sichuan Jiuniu at 80%, Yunnan Yukun at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 60% for Yunnan Yukun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 80% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 60% of Yunnan Yukun's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent matches and 80% of Yunnan Yukun's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.29 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.19 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.18 / defence 1.05 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 62% | Draw 19% | Yunnan Yukun 19%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Yunnan Yukun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 70%, Yunnan Yukun 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.