Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island make the trip to Shanghai Stadium to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 6W 2D 2L at Shanghai Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Shanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Qingdao Youth Island arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shanghai Shenhua have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Qingdao Youth Island in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Shanghai Shenhua have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Qingdao Youth Island managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shanghai Shenhua and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Statistical Overview
Shanghai Shenhua's cumulative Super League record this campaign: 8W 5D 4L from 17 matches. They average 2.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-3 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 17 games (35%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-1-2. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.
Qingdao Youth Island's full-season record stands at 5W 9D 4L from 18 games. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 5-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 7 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 18 games (17%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 2 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-1-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.
Shanghai Shenhua have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.10 per game versus 1.20 for the visitors. Shanghai Shenhua score 2+ goals far more often (35% vs 17%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Shanghai Shenhua 5/5 vs Qingdao Youth Island 3/5 this season.
Current Standings
In the Super League table, Qingdao Youth Island sit 6th on 24 points, 4 places and 5 points ahead of Shanghai Shenhua in 10th.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record this season stands at 5W 2D 2L. Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 3D 4L in Super League this season.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shanghai Shenhua 70% and Qingdao Youth Island 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.20 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.150 / defence 1.178 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.902 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Shanghai Shenhua games / 48 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 55% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Shanghai Shenhua dominate the H2H record, yet Qingdao Youth Island are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Manager edge: Qingdao Youth Island led by Shao Jiayi • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 4W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W • Goals trend: 2.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shanghai Shenhua 11 – 3 Qingdao Youth Island • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Shanghai Shenhua 80% / Draw 20% / Qingdao Youth Island 0% • Historical edge: Shanghai Shenhua dominant — 4W from 5 meetings (80% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Shanghai Shenhua favoured. H2H win rate 80%, Poisson win probability 55% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.80 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.65 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 68% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W • Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L • Shanghai Shenhua home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Qingdao Youth Island away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • Form edge: Qingdao Youth Island lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Shanghai Shenhua): Poisson xG of 2.20 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Qingdao Youth Island): Poisson projects 1.45 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.65 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Shanghai Shenhua 7/10, Qingdao Youth Island 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 68% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Qingdao Youth Island on PPG but Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua higher (55% vs 25% for Qingdao Youth Island) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 55% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Youth Island 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.20 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.150 / def 1.178 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.902 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Qingdao Youth Island xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Shanghai Stadium.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 55% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island?
• Record (5 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 4W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W • Goals trend: 2.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Shanghai Shenhua 11 – 3 Qingdao Youth Island • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: Shanghai Shenhua 80% / Draw 20% / Qingdao Youth Island 0% • Historical edge: Shanghai Shenhua dominant — 4W from 5 meetings (80% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Shanghai Shenhua favoured. H2H win rate 80%, Poisson win probability 55% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.80 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.65 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 68% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island in?
• Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W • Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L • Shanghai Shenhua home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 3 • Qingdao Youth Island away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • Form edge: Qingdao Youth Island lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Shanghai Shenhua): Poisson xG of 2.20 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.20 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Qingdao Youth Island): Poisson projects 1.45 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.65 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Shanghai Shenhua 7/10, Qingdao Youth Island 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 68% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Qingdao Youth Island on PPG but Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua higher (55% vs 25% for Qingdao Youth Island) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture