Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 54%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Baoan Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shandong Luneng's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Shandong Luneng are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 80% of Shandong Luneng's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have the stronger record — 4 wins to Sichuan Jiuniu's 0, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 1–3 Shandong Luneng — a Shandong Luneng win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Shandong Luneng 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Shandong Luneng 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sichuan Jiuniu surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Shandong Luneng have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.027 / defence 1.086 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.991 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.194. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 40 games and Shandong Luneng's last 40.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 24%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 | Draw 4.51 | Shandong Luneng 4.25. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 home games and Shandong Luneng's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% (last 10 home games) | Shandong Luneng 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Baoan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.03 / Shandong Luneng 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.027 / def 1.086 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.991 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Shandong Luneng xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng FAQs
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Baoan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Baoan Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 54% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (1.03) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.99x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 40 games and Shandong Luneng's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.51
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.31
1.28
Shandong Luneng xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
3%
32.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.28 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 11D 34L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 1.68 PPG from 60 outings (28W 17D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sichuan Jiuniu's home form reads 10W 6D 14L across their last 30 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 10D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.97 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu (Home) vs Shandong Luneng (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng Form FAQs
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 28W 17D 15L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.20 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu on 11 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Shandong Luneng 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sichuan Jiuniu, 67% for Shandong Luneng — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 63% for Shandong Luneng. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 67% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 63% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sichuan Jiuniu's recent matches and 83% of Shandong Luneng's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-2 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.28 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 54% | Draw 22% | Shandong Luneng 24%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Shandong Luneng win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, Shandong Luneng 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.