Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 47%, yet in-form Beijing Guoan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Shenzhen Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Beijing Guoan in Super League (matchday 7). Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Current Form

Sichuan Jiuniu's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Beijing Guoan have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Beijing Guoan arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 2–1 Beijing Guoan — a Sichuan Jiuniu win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Beijing Guoan 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sichuan Jiuniu surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Beijing Guoan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.84 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.290 / defence 1.279 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.980 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.158. Sichuan Jiuniu carry an above-average attack rating of 1.290 — their 1.84 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beijing Guoan's projected output up. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 36 games and Beijing Guoan's last 36.

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 31%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.14 | Draw 4.42 | Beijing Guoan 3.27. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 40% (last 10 away games).

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