Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Youth Island face Shenyang Urban.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Shenyang Urban at Guzhenkou University Sports Center in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Qingdao Youth Island — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.81 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.825 / defence 0.891 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.620 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.955 / away 1.158. Shenyang Urban's attack rating of 0.620 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 34 games and Shenyang Urban's last 4.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 66% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 13%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.53 | Draw 4.56 | Shenyang Urban 7.97. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (66%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: Guzhenkou University Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 66% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.81 / Shenyang Urban 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.825 / def 0.891 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.620 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.955 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Shenyang Urban xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban FAQs
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Guzhenkou University Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 1 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Guzhenkou University Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 66% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Shenyang Urban will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.82) and Shenyang Urban's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenyang Urban's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 34 games and Shenyang Urban's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
66%
1.53
22%
4.56
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.45
0.64
Shenyang Urban xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
2%
48.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.64 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Qingdao Youth Island (Home) vs Shenyang Urban (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Qingdao Youth Island
1
Draws
0
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Youth Island vs Shenyang Urban H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shenyang Urban?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, Shenyang Urban have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Shenyang Urban 0-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Shenyang Urban?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Youth Island and Shenyang Urban share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guzhenkou University Sports Center, Regular Season - 5, as Qingdao Youth Island and Shenyang Urban drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.81 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.64 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.62 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 66% | Draw 22% | Shenyang Urban 13%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.