📋

Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Huizhou Olympic Stadium plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Huizhou Olympic Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Henan Jianye away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hangzhou Greentown, 1.30 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Henan Jianye in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 6W 4D 7L from their 17 Super League appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.7 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Henan Jianye show 6W 3D 8L from 17 outings in Super League. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 17 games (6%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game.

Henan Jianye have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.30 per game versus 1.70 for the hosts. Hangzhou Greentown are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: Hangzhou Greentown 2/3 vs Henan Jianye 2/3 this season.

Current Standings

In the Super League table, Hangzhou Greentown sit 11th on 17 points, 2 places and 2 points ahead of Henan Jianye in 13th.

At home this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 3D 2L. On the road, Henan Jianye's record stands at 3W 2D 4L this term.

Trading Data

Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 62% and Henan Jianye 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 68% | Henan Jianye 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.36 xG and Henan Jianye 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.886 / defence 1.077 | Henan Jianye attack 0.896 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 47 Hangzhou Greentown games / 47 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 38% | Draw 26% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Henan Jianye 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights