Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to face Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalian Zhixing have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Zhixing have posted 6W 1D 3L at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Dalian Zhixing, 1.70 for Tianjin Teda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 0W, Tianjin Teda 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Dalian Zhixing goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 50% versus Tianjin Teda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 44% | Tianjin Teda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.14 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.992 / defence 0.910 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.871 / defence 0.670. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.670 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Dalian Zhixing games / 54 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 35%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Tianjin Teda 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dalian Zhixing 70% | Tianjin Teda 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 36% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.14 / Tianjin Teda 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.992 / def 0.910 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.871 / def 0.670 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 36% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.87x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.39
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.25
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.11 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Dalian Zhixing have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 20W 12D 22L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 19W 16D 19L from 54 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Dalian Zhixing against 1.35 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dalian Zhixing have posted 1.89 PPG from 27 outings (16W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 8W 8D 11L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 20W 12D 22L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.89 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tianjin Teda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda?
From 3 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 37%, Tianjin Teda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Dalian Zhixing) and 48% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 56% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 48% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.