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Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Current Form

Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 6W 1D 3L at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Wuhan Three Towns have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Wuhan Three Towns away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Yunnan Yukun. A 0.60 PPG lead over Wuhan Three Towns (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Stats

Across 18 matches this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 7W 3D 8L. They average 1.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 18 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Current Standings

In the Super League table, Yunnan Yukun sit 5th on 24 points, 11 places and 16 points ahead of Wuhan Three Towns in 16th.

At home this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 4W 1D 3L. On the road, Wuhan Three Towns's record stands at 0W 5D 5L this term. Wuhan Three Towns: Relegation - League One.

Trading Data

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 77% and Wuhan Three Towns 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 66% | Wuhan Three Towns 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.20 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.060 / defence 1.100 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.995 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Yunnan Yukun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Yunnan Yukun games / 47 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 54% | Draw 20% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.85 | Draw 5.00 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.85. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 50% | Wuhan Three Towns 80% BTTS from recent games.

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