Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 6W 2D 2L at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Wuhan Three Towns away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.10 for Wuhan Three Towns. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Wuhan Three Towns in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yunnan Yukun lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 74% and Wuhan Three Towns 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 67% | Wuhan Three Towns 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.40 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.261 / defence 0.965 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.044 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.404. Yunnan Yukun carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Yunnan Yukun games / 58 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 59% | Draw 20% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Wuhan Three Towns 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 59% | Draw 20% | Wuhan Three Towns 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.40 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.261 / def 0.965 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.044 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Wuhan Three Towns xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 59% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (3 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (1.26) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.04x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
59%
1.71
20%
4.90
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.81
1.42
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
9%
10.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
2%
52.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.42 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 22W 15D 21L from 58 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 11W 19D 28L across 58 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Yunnan Yukun by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Three Towns heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 16W 7D 6L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 3W 9D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.29 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Wuhan Three Towns in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 11W 19D 28L in their last 58 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.90 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 3 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Yunnan Yukun, 69% for Wuhan Three Towns — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Yunnan Yukun and 62% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 69% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.