Henan Jianye 4-0 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Henan Jianye face Shenyang Urban.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shenyang Urban make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.25 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.700 / defence 1.085 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.631 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.155. Henan Jianye's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Shenyang Urban's attack rating of 0.631 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Henan Jianye's last 38 games and Shenyang Urban's last 8.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 47% | Draw 29% | Shenyang Urban 24%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.12 | Draw 3.40 | Shenyang Urban 4.25. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 47% | Draw 29% | Shenyang Urban 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Henan Jianye 1.25 / Shenyang Urban 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.700 / def 1.085 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.631 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Shenyang Urban xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban FAQs
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban?
Henan Jianye 4 - 0 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 47% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shenyang Urban will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Shenyang Urban's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Shenyang Urban's attack (0.63x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Henan Jianye's last 38 games and Shenyang Urban's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.40
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.04
0.79
Shenyang Urban xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.79 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Henan Jianye (Home) vs Shenyang Urban (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Henan Jianye and Shenyang Urban, the earliest from May 2026. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
0
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shenyang Urban?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Henan Jianye have won 1, Shenyang Urban have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Shenyang Urban 4-4 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shenyang Urban?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Shenyang Urban.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shenyang Urban 4-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.25 xG and Shenyang Urban 0.79 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.63 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 47% | Draw 29% | Shenyang Urban 24%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.