Dalian Zhixing 1-3 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 56%, yet in-form Yunnan Yukun provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Zhixing versus Yunnan Yukun in Super League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form
Dalian Zhixing (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dalian Zhixing's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Yunnan Yukun's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Yunnan Yukun are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Dalian Zhixing, 0 for Yunnan Yukun and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Dalian Zhixing 1–1 Yunnan Yukun — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Dalian Zhixing half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Yunnan Yukun half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 40% versus Yunnan Yukun 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 33% | Yunnan Yukun 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dalian Zhixing surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Yunnan Yukun have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.94 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.059 / defence 0.797 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.284 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.102. Yunnan Yukun have an above-average attack rating of 1.284, which lifts their away xG to 1.13. Dalian Zhixing have a tight defence (rating 0.797), which is pulling Yunnan Yukun's projected output down. Data: built from Dalian Zhixing's last 37 games and Yunnan Yukun's last 37.
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 56% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 22%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.78 | Draw 4.55 | Yunnan Yukun 4.59. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yunnan Yukun (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dalian Zhixing 10% (last 10 home games) | Yunnan Yukun 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, matchday 8 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 56% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.94 / Yunnan Yukun 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 1.059 / def 0.797 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.284 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Yunnan Yukun xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun FAQs
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 3 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun is a Super League fixture (matchday 8) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 56% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (1.28x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Dalian Zhixing's last 37 games and Yunnan Yukun's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.55
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.07
1.13
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
31.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.13 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Zhixing come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Yunnan Yukun sit at 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Dalian Zhixing against 1.40 for Yunnan Yukun. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Dalian Zhixing's home form reads 8W 2D 5L across their last 15 home games, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yunnan Yukun have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 15 away games (3W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.57 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun in 73%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing (Home) vs Yunnan Yukun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
Yunnan Yukun
Current Season
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.73 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun, the earliest from May 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Yunnan Yukun have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 20%, Yunnan Yukun 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Dalian Zhixing) and 60% (Yunnan Yukun).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 80% of Yunnan Yukun's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 60% of Yunnan Yukun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 80% of Yunnan Yukun's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Dalian Zhixing 1-3 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.94 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.13 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Yunnan Yukun attack 1.28 / defence 1.10, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 56% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 22%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Yunnan Yukun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 33%, Yunnan Yukun 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG, Yunnan Yukun 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.