Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-0 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chongqing Tongliang Long face Shenyang Urban.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shenyang Urban make the trip to Tongliang Long Stadium to face Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.95 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.859 / defence 1.150 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.709 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.872 / away 1.323. Shenyang Urban's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chongqing Tongliang Long's projected output up. Shenyang Urban's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 1 games and Shenyang Urban's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 55% | Draw 26% | Shenyang Urban 19%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.80 | Draw 3.86 | Shenyang Urban 5.38. The model has a clear lean to Chongqing Tongliang Long (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 games, Shenyang Urban 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 55% | Draw 26% | Shenyang Urban 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.95 / Shenyang Urban 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.859 / def 1.150 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.709 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.872 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Shenyang Urban xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban FAQs
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 11:35 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 - 0 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 55% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shenyang Urban will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack rating (0.86) and Shenyang Urban's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shenyang Urban's attack (0.71x) against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 1 games and Shenyang Urban's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
55%
1.80
26%
3.86
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
3.02
1.08
Shenyang Urban xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
3%
37.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.08 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Chongqing Tongliang Long (Home) vs Shenyang Urban (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Shenyang Urban
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 4 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0
Draws
1
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shenyang Urban H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shenyang Urban?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, Shenyang Urban have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 July 2026: Shenyang Urban 3-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Chongqing Tongliang Long edge out Shenyang Urban 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Tongliang Long beat Shenyang Urban 1-0 at Tongliang Long Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.95 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.08 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Tongliang Long fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shenyang Urban landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 55% | Draw 26% | Shenyang Urban 19%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.