Chengdu Better City 5-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Chengdu Better City face Sichuan Jiuniu.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Super League (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Chengdu Better City's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Chengdu Better City, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Sichuan Jiuniu — Sichuan Jiuniu have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Chengdu Better City 1–1 Sichuan Jiuniu — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Chengdu Better City and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 58% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%). Note also that Sichuan Jiuniu surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Chengdu Better City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.85 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.011 / defence 0.910 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.879 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.465. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 30 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 53% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.88 | Draw 4.41 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.17. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 home games) | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Chengdu Better City 30 games, Sichuan Jiuniu 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 11:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 53% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Chengdu Better City 1.85 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.011 / def 0.910 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.879 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Chengdu Better City 5 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 53% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.88x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 30 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.41
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.03
1.17
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
4%
26.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.17 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 35W 14D 11L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 15W 11D 34L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.27 PPG from their last 30 home games (21W 5D 4L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 5D 20L from their last 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Sichuan Jiuniu (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 14D 11L in their last 60 games (1.98 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.27 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 27 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 5-0 Sichuan Jiuniu on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 June 2026: Sichuan Jiuniu 2-3 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Sichuan Jiuniu 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Chengdu Better City) and 57% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 57% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Sichuan Jiuniu 5-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.85 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 53% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.