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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Tongliang Long Stadium to face Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Odds

The market has installed Chongqing Tongliang Long as the clear favourite — Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.27 (implied 41%), Draw 3.55 (26%), Hangzhou Greentown 2.83 (implied 33%).

Current Form

Chongqing Tongliang Long's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record at Tongliang Long Stadium: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Super League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chongqing Tongliang Long are significantly better at Tongliang Long Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Chongqing Tongliang Long against 1.40 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Stats

Across 18 matches this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 7D 4L. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 7 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 18 games (6%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game, 0.11 reds per game.

Hangzhou Greentown have played 17 games this season, recording 6W 4D 7L. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 1.7 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 6 games this season. 3 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 17 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 1 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards per game, 0.12 reds per game.

Chongqing Tongliang Long have the superior defensive numbers, conceding 1.10 per game against Hangzhou Greentown's 1.70. Chongqing Tongliang Long lead on clean sheets this season (7 vs 3). Hangzhou Greentown are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: Chongqing Tongliang Long 0/1 vs Hangzhou Greentown 2/3 this season.

League Table

Chongqing Tongliang Long hold the table advantage, sitting 2nd with 28 points — 9 positions and 11 points clear of Hangzhou Greentown in 11th.

At home this season, Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 4W 4D 1L. On the road, Hangzhou Greentown's record stands at 3W 1D 5L this term. Chongqing Tongliang Long: Promotion - AFC Champions League 2.

Trading & In-Play

Chongqing Tongliang Long — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Hangzhou Greentown — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 39% | Hangzhou Greentown 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.63 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.808 / defence 0.912 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.051 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.361. Data: 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 47 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 45% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 31%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.23. Chongqing Tongliang Long hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 2.27 (fair-implied 41% vs Poisson 45%). Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game. The market (1.66, fair-implied 56%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%. Market pricing (1.55, fair-implied 60%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.

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