Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 45%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Tongliang Long Stadium to face Chongqing Tongliang Long in Super League, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Odds
The market has installed Chongqing Tongliang Long as the clear favourite — Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.27 (implied 41%), Draw 3.55 (26%), Hangzhou Greentown 2.83 (implied 33%).
Current Form
Chongqing Tongliang Long's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Tongliang Long, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record at Tongliang Long Stadium: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Super League appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chongqing Tongliang Long are significantly better at Tongliang Long Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.70 PPG clear of Chongqing Tongliang Long in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chongqing Tongliang Long lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Chongqing Tongliang Long winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Chongqing Tongliang Long — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Tongliang Long 39% | Hangzhou Greentown 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.806 / defence 0.916 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.049 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.367. Data: 18 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 48 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 45% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 31%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.23. Chongqing Tongliang Long hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Tongliang Long are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 2.27 (fair-implied 41% vs Poisson 45%). Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game. The market (1.66, fair-implied 56%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chongqing Tongliang Long 56% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%. Market pricing (1.55, fair-implied 60%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tongliang Long Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 45% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.62 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.806 / def 0.916 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.049 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.27 (impl 41%) | Draw 3.55 (impl 26%) | Hangzhou Greentown 2.83 (impl 33%) • Market favourite: Chongqing Tongliang Long at 2.27 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to Chongqing Tongliang Long — Poisson 45% vs market implied 41% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.66 (impl 60%) / Under 2.5 2.15 (impl 47%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 56% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.55 (impl 65%) / No 2.31 (impl 43%) | Poisson BTTS probability 59%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Hangzhou Greentown xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Tongliang Long Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 45% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Tongliang Long 1W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Chongqing Tongliang Long (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
1X2 market: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.27 (impl 41%) | Draw 3.55 (impl 26%) | Hangzhou Greentown 2.83 (impl 33%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack at 0.81x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.05x) against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
45%
2.25
25%
4.08
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
2.93
1.31
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.25
45%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
6%
16.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.31 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Chongqing Tongliang Long have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 7W 7D 4L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chongqing Tongliang Long is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Chongqing Tongliang Long against 1.39 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chongqing Tongliang Long have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (4W 4D 1L).
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chongqing Tongliang Long come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chongqing Tongliang Long are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.44 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Chongqing Tongliang Long have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have gone 7W 7D 4L in their last 18 games (1.56 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Tongliang Long at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Tongliang Long at home: 1.78 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Chongqing Tongliang Long or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Tongliang Long
1
Draws
0
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chongqing Tongliang Long see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chongqing Tongliang Long 56%, Hangzhou Greentown 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chongqing Tongliang Long) and 78% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Tongliang Long keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chongqing Tongliang Long play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's games and 56% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Chongqing Tongliang Long's matches and 78% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Chongqing Tongliang Long have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tongliang Long Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Chongqing Tongliang Long and Hangzhou Greentown drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.31 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 45% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 31%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Tongliang Long 39%, Hangzhou Greentown 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Tongliang Long's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.56 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.