Beijing Guoan 3-0 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Dalian Zhixing at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Dalian Zhixing have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dalian Zhixing's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Beijing Guoan's games and 60% of Dalian Zhixing's (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Dalian Zhixing's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Beijing Guoan, 0 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Beijing Guoan 4–2 Dalian Zhixing — a Beijing Guoan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 63% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 70% | Dalian Zhixing 33%). Note also that Dalian Zhixing surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Beijing Guoan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.032 / defence 1.292 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.147 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.203. Beijing Guoan's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Zhixing's projected output up. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 39 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 39.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 44% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 35%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.28 | Draw 4.72 | Dalian Zhixing 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.78) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Dalian Zhixing's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 80% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Zhixing 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, matchday 10 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 44% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Beijing Guoan 2.01 / Dalian Zhixing 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.032 / def 1.292 | Dalian Zhixing attack 1.147 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Dalian Zhixing xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 0 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing is a Super League fixture (matchday 10) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 44% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 35% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 39 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
44%
2.28
21%
4.72
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.79
1.78
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.57
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
5%
21.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.78 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 17W 6D 7L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Dalian Zhixing's form line: 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Zhixing.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 15 home games (10W 2D 3L).
On the road, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 7D 7L from their last 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Dalian Zhixing (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.13 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan won Beijing Guoan 3-0 Dalian Zhixing.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
0
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Dalian Zhixing 1-1 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 86% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 73%, Dalian Zhixing at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Beijing Guoan and 47% for Dalian Zhixing. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Beijing Guoan's games and 60% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 47% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Dalian Zhixing matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 93% of Dalian Zhixing's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Dalian Zhixing 3-0 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.78 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Zhixing landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.03 / defence 1.29 against Dalian Zhixing attack 1.15 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 44% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 35%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 70%, Dalian Zhixing 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.