FC Volendam 0-5 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Volendam face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host PEC Zwolle at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Volendam have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Volendam have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Volendam are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PEC Zwolle away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 0.80 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FC Volendam's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and PEC Zwolle 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 70% | PEC Zwolle 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.05 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.954 / defence 1.164 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.883 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.445. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Volendam's projected output up. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 47 games and PEC Zwolle's last 13.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 49% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.04 | Draw 4.01 | PEC Zwolle 3.84. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.05 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 70% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 14 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 49% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG FC Volendam 2.05 / PEC Zwolle 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.954 / def 1.164 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.883 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.49
PEC Zwolle xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle FAQs
What time does FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
FC Volendam 0 - 5 PEC Zwolle.
Where is FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle part of?
FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 14) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 49% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.95x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Volendam's last 47 games and PEC Zwolle's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.01
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.54
1.49
PEC Zwolle xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
3%
29.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.49 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 8D 27L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.85 PPG from 47 outings (27W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
PEC Zwolle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Volendam's home form reads 11W 2D 10L across their last 23 home games, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.70 points per game from their last 23 away games (12W 3D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.11 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC Volendam (Home) vs PEC Zwolle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Volendam
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle Form FAQs
What form are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 27L in their last 47 games (0.94 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 27W 6D 14L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.52 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.70 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Dec 2023, when PEC Zwolle won FC Volendam 0-5 PEC Zwolle.
FC Volendam's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Volendam have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 70%, PEC Zwolle at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 74% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 65% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 74% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 83% of PEC Zwolle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 0-5 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat FC Volendam 0-5 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.05 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.49 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 2.1 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.49 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 49% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 26%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 70%, PEC Zwolle 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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