PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
NEC Nijmegen away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.10 for NEC Nijmegen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2022, ended PEC Zwolle 1–1 NEC Nijmegen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 56% versus NEC Nijmegen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 65% | NEC Nijmegen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.15 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.701 / defence 1.123 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.071 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.505. PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 14 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 48.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 22% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 51%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 4.52 | Draw 3.71 | NEC Nijmegen 1.96. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 40% (last 10 home games) | NEC Nijmegen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 15 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 22% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.15 / NEC Nijmegen 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.701 / def 1.123 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.071 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.81
NEC Nijmegen xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 22% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.70x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.07x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 14 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
22%
4.52
27%
3.71
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.96
1.81
NEC Nijmegen xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
4%
27.64
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.81 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 28W 6D 14L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 11W 21D 16L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, PEC Zwolle are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NEC Nijmegen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 2.04 PPG from their last 23 home games (15W 2D 6L).
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 6W 9D 8L from their last 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.38 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs NEC Nijmegen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 28W 6D 14L in their last 48 games (1.88 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 21D 16L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 2.04 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.17 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
6
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 0, NEC Nijmegen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 48%, NEC Nijmegen 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PEC Zwolle) and 39% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 30%; NEC Nijmegen in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 39% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 39% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 61% of NEC Nijmegen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 1-3 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.15 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.81 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 22% | Draw 27% | NEC Nijmegen 51%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 65%, NEC Nijmegen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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