PEC Zwolle 1-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face Waalwijk.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Waalwijk make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

PEC Zwolle have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Waalwijk's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Waalwijk's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.90 for Waalwijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) — PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Waalwijk in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, PEC Zwolle edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2022, ended PEC Zwolle 2–0 Waalwijk — a PEC Zwolle win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 56% versus Waalwijk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | Waalwijk 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.36 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.710 / defence 1.048 | Waalwijk attack 0.692 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.419. PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 12 games and Waalwijk's last 45.

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 42% | Draw 33% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.40 | Draw 3.07 | Waalwijk 3.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 30% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights