Heracles 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam meet at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 6W 2D 2L at Erve Asito — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Heracles have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sparta Rotterdam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Heracles, 1 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 55% versus Sparta Rotterdam 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 78% | Sparta Rotterdam 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.26 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.933 / defence 1.362 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.103 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.488. Sparta Rotterdam's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Heracles games / 47 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 58%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Sparta Rotterdam 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Heracles 1.26 / Sparta Rotterdam 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.933 / def 1.362 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.103 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Heracles 0 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 19% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.93) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (1.10x) against Heracles's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
19%
5.24
23%
4.31
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.50
2.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
5.24
19%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
11%
9.36
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
2%
48.98
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Heracles and 2.24 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles's recent record stands at 31W 7D 13L from 51 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 16L across 51 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Heracles against 1.59 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 18W 4D 3L from 25 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.59 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 31W 7D 13L in their last 51 games (1.96 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 23W 12D 16L in their last 51 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Heracles's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.32 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Heracles or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heracles won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Heracles
3
Draws
3
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, Sparta Rotterdam 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Heracles and 60% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 40%; Sparta Rotterdam in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heracles's recent matches and 44% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Heracles's matches and 60% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Heracles 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Heracles 0-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.26 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 2.24 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Heracles fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.93 / defence 1.36 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.10 / defence 0.79, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 58%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 78%, Sparta Rotterdam 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.96 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.