Heracles 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Heracles face Sparta Rotterdam.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam meet at Erve Asito in Eredivisie (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Heracles's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Heracles have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Heracles are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Heracles's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) — Heracles have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sparta Rotterdam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Heracles, 1 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2022, ended Heracles 1–3 Sparta Rotterdam — a Sparta Rotterdam win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 55% versus Sparta Rotterdam 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 78% | Sparta Rotterdam 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.26 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.933 / defence 1.362 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.103 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.488. Sparta Rotterdam bring a tight defence (rating 0.787, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Heracles's projected output down. Heracles's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output up. Data: built from Heracles's last 13 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 47.
Result probabilities: Heracles 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 58%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 5.24 | Draw 4.31 | Sparta Rotterdam 1.73. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.26 / 2.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Heracles's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Heracles 60% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Rotterdam 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 14 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Heracles 1.26 / Sparta Rotterdam 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.933 / def 1.362 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.103 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam FAQs
What time does Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Heracles 0 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 14) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 19% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.93) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (1.10x) against Heracles's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
These ratings are built from Heracles's last 13 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
19%
5.24
23%
4.31
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.50
2.24
Sparta Rotterdam xG
5.24
19%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
11%
9.36
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
2%
48.98
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Heracles and 2.24 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles's recent record stands at 31W 7D 13L from 51 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 16L across 51 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Heracles against 1.59 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 18W 4D 3L from their last 25 home games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across their last 25 away games, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.59 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Heracles (Home) vs Sparta Rotterdam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Heracles
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam Form FAQs
What form are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 31W 7D 13L in their last 51 games (1.96 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 23W 12D 16L in their last 51 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Heracles's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.32 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Heracles or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 11 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heracles won Heracles 3-0 Sparta Rotterdam on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Heracles
3
Draws
3
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Heracles have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2026: Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, Sparta Rotterdam 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Heracles and 60% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 40%; Sparta Rotterdam in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heracles's recent matches and 44% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Heracles's matches and 60% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Heracles's recent matches and 68% of Sparta Rotterdam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Heracles 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Heracles 0-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.26 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 2.24 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Heracles fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.93 / defence 1.36 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.10 / defence 0.79, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 19% | Draw 23% | Sparta Rotterdam 58%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 78%, Sparta Rotterdam 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.96 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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