Heerenveen 3-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Heerenveen face Almere City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heerenveen host Almere City FC at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Heerenveen — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Heerenveen have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Almere City FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Heerenveen) versus 1.30 (Almere City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Almere City FC trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 53% versus Almere City FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 63% | Almere City FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.68 xG and Almere City FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.003 / defence 0.925 | Almere City FC attack 0.825 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.458. Data: built from Heerenveen's last 47 games and Almere City FC's last 13.
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 48% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.07 | Draw 3.46 | Almere City FC 4.38. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Heerenveen's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Heerenveen 50% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 14 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 48% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Heerenveen 1.68 / Almere City FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.003 / def 0.925 | Almere City FC attack 0.825 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Almere City FC xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Heerenveen vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Heerenveen vs Almere City FC kick off?
Heerenveen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 December 2023 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Heerenveen 3 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Heerenveen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Almere City FC part of?
Heerenveen vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 14) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 48% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Heerenveen and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Heerenveen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Heerenveen's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Heerenveen's last 47 games and Almere City FC's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.46
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.79
1.11
Almere City FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Heerenveen vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.11 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heerenveen come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 11D 21L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 49 outings (24W 12D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Heerenveen's home form reads 9W 4D 11L across their last 24 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.88 points per game from their last 24 away games (13W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heerenveen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
Heerenveen (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Heerenveen
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Heerenveen vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Heerenveen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 24W 12D 13L in their last 49 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.29 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Heerenveen or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2023, when Heerenveen won Heerenveen 3-0 Almere City FC.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Heerenveen
1
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Heerenveen vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Almere City FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Heerenveen have won 2, Almere City FC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Heerenveen 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Almere City FC?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 62%, Almere City FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Heerenveen) and 33% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Heerenveen vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Heerenveen and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 46% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Heerenveen and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Heerenveen's recent games and 33% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heerenveen and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 71% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heerenveen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Almere City FC 3-0 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.68 xG and Almere City FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Almere City FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 48% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 23%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 63%, Almere City FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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