Feyenoord 3-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 78% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Volendam travel to Stadion Feijenoord to take on Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Thursday 7 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Feyenoord stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Feyenoord have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, FC Volendam have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Feyenoord have won 2, FC Volendam 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended Feyenoord 2–1 FC Volendam — a Feyenoord win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Volendam trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 60% and FC Volendam 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 65% | FC Volendam 71%). Note also that FC Volendam surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.96 xG and FC Volendam 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.399 / defence 0.726 | FC Volendam attack 0.817 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.501. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack rating of 1.399 — their 2.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Feyenoord's projected output up. Feyenoord have a tight defence (rating 0.726), which is pulling FC Volendam's projected output down. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 48 games and FC Volendam's last 48.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 7%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.28 | Draw 6.80 | FC Volendam 13.91. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (78%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Feyenoord 2.96 / FC Volendam 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.399 / def 0.726 | FC Volendam attack 0.817 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Volendam xG
57%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs FC Volendam kick off?
Feyenoord vs FC Volendam kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Feyenoord 3 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs FC Volendam part of?
Feyenoord vs FC Volendam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 15) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 78% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Feyenoord and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.40) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 48 games and FC Volendam's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.80
7%
13.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.85
0.89
FC Volendam xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.80
15%
Draw
13.91
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
5%
19.34
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.89 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 35W 9D 4L from 48 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 28L across 48 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 17W 5D 2L from their last 24 home games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 1W 6D 17L across their last 24 away games, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.19 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 62%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 35W 9D 4L in their last 48 games (2.38 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 28L in their last 48 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or FC Volendam away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.33 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
2
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 4, FC Volendam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: FC Volendam 0-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and FC Volendam?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, FC Volendam 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Feyenoord and 71% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; FC Volendam in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and FC Volendam matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 58% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feyenoord and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Feyenoord's matches and 71% of FC Volendam's.
Do Feyenoord and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 79% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat FC Volendam 3-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.96 xG and FC Volendam 0.89 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 0.73 against FC Volendam attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 78% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 7%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 15
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →