Feyenoord 1-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PSV Eindhoven at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Feijenoord, Feyenoord have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
PSV Eindhoven have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.70 PPG for Feyenoord against 3.00 for PSV Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feyenoord lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 60% versus PSV Eindhoven 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 64% | PSV Eindhoven 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.33 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.415 / defence 0.702 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.764 / defence 0.552. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.475. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.552 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.764 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Feyenoord games / 47 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 26% | Draw 26% | PSV Eindhoven 47%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | PSV Eindhoven 2.13. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 50% | PSV Eindhoven 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 26% | Draw 26% | PSV Eindhoven 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Feyenoord 1.33 / PSV Eindhoven 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.415 / def 0.702 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.764 / def 0.552 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.83
PSV Eindhoven xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven?
Feyenoord 1 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 26% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 2 | PSV Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.42x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 0.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.76x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
26%
3.79
26%
3.82
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.16
1.83
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
4%
23.56
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.83 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 35W 9D 3L from 47 games, a 2.43 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 36W 6D 5L across 47 games — 2.43 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.43 PPG for Feyenoord against 2.43 for PSV Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 17W 5D 1L from 23 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PSV Eindhoven's away record stands at 15W 4D 4L across 23 trips, a 2.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.91 scored and 0.96 conceded. Feyenoord's scoring rate against PSV Eindhoven's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; PSV Eindhoven in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 35W 9D 3L in their last 47 games (2.43 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 36W 6D 5L in their last 47 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.43 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Feyenoord
3
Draws
6
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 48%, PSV Eindhoven 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Feyenoord and 78% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; PSV Eindhoven in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 56% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Feyenoord's matches and 78% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Feyenoord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Feyenoord 1-2 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.33 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.83 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.42 / defence 0.70 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.76 / defence 0.55, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 26% | Draw 26% | PSV Eindhoven 47%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 64%, PSV Eindhoven 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.43 PPG, PSV Eindhoven 2.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PSV Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.