Waalwijk 2-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as Waalwijk welcome Excelsior to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 5W 0D 5L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Excelsior — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Excelsior have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.00 (Excelsior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Excelsior and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 54% versus Excelsior 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Excelsior 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.50 xG and Excelsior 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.795 / defence 1.013 | Excelsior attack 0.929 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.482. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Waalwijk games / 47 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 29% | Excelsior 33%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Excelsior 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 50% | Excelsior 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 29% | Excelsior 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Waalwijk 1.50 / Excelsior 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.795 / def 1.013 | Excelsior attack 0.929 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Excelsior xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Excelsior kick off?
Waalwijk vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Waalwijk 2 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Waalwijk vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Excelsior part of?
Waalwijk vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 38% chance of winning, Excelsior a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Waalwijk and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Excelsior?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Excelsior in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Excelsior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.80x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
38%
2.66
29%
3.41
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.89
1.40
Excelsior xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.40 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 15W 8D 23L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 11W 11D 24L from 46 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.15 PPG, Excelsior on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (11W 2D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 2W 5D 15L from 22 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.13 scored and 2.09 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 8D 23L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 11W 11D 24L in their last 46 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Excelsior away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.59 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
3
Draws
0
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Excelsior have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Excelsior 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Excelsior?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 59%, Excelsior 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Waalwijk and 64% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 27% of games; Excelsior in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 46% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Waalwijk's matches and 64% of Excelsior's.
Do Waalwijk and Excelsior tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Excelsior share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk and Excelsior finished level at 2-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.50 xG and Excelsior 1.40 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Excelsior attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 38% | Draw 29% | Excelsior 33%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Excelsior 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.15 PPG, Excelsior 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.