Shandong Luneng 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Tianjin Teda at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 18 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shandong Luneng are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Shandong Luneng 3–3 Tianjin Teda — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 49% versus Tianjin Teda 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 62% | Tianjin Teda 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.90 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.553 / defence 0.611 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.871 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.227. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack rating of 1.553 — their 1.90 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Tianjin Teda bring a tight defence (rating 0.791, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Shandong Luneng's projected output down. Shandong Luneng have a tight defence (rating 0.611), which is pulling Tianjin Teda's projected output down. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 56 games and Tianjin Teda's last 55.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 66% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 11%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.51 | Draw 4.37 | Tianjin Teda 9.13. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (66%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 40% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 66% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.90 / Tianjin Teda 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.553 / def 0.611 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.871 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Tianjin Teda xG
42%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 18 August 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 66% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.55x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 56 games and Tianjin Teda's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.37
11%
9.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.56
0.65
Tianjin Teda xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
9.13
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
2%
61.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.65 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 34W 11D 10L from 55 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 20W 20D 15L across 55 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 22W 3D 2L from their last 27 home games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 10W 8D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.29 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 34W 11D 10L in their last 55 games (2.05 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 20D 15L in their last 55 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.56 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shandong Luneng have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 4-1 Tianjin Teda.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 7, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 37%, Tianjin Teda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Shandong Luneng) and 37% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 52% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 37% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 77% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.90 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.65 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shandong Luneng fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.55 / defence 0.61 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.87 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 66% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 11%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 62%, Tianjin Teda 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.