Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 6W 1D 3L at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 73% versus Qingdao Jonoon 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Qingdao Jonoon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.71 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.078 / defence 0.904 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.600 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.227. Data: 55 Hangzhou Greentown games / 22 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 61% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Qingdao Jonoon 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 61% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Jonoon 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.71 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.078 / def 0.904 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.600 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Qingdao Jonoon xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 61% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.08) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
61%
1.63
26%
3.92
13%
7.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.38
0.67
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
7.69
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
2%
42.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.67 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 10W 5D 7L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon's form line: 5W 4D 13L from 22 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (6W 1D 4L).
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 0W 2D 9L from 11 away games — 0.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.14 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 4D 13L in their last 22 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.73 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 14 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 54%, Qingdao Jonoon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 36% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 27% of games; Qingdao Jonoon in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 46% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 36% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hangzhou Greentown's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 23, as Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Jonoon drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.71 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.67 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.08 / defence 0.90 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.60 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 61% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Qingdao Jonoon 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.