Al-Hilal Saudi FC 9-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Fateh at Kingdom Arena in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Thursday 16 January 2025 at 15:05 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 2.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 60% of Al-Fateh's (from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Al-Fateh and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2024, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–1 Al-Fateh — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% | Al-Fateh 65%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 100% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.45 xG and Al-Fateh 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.521 / defence 0.864 | Al-Fateh attack 0.796 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.470. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.521 — their 2.45 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 48 games and Al-Fateh's last 48.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.45 | Draw 5.79 | Al-Fateh 7.29. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 January 2025 at 15:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.45 / Al-Fateh 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.521 / def 0.864 | Al-Fateh attack 0.796 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:05 UK time on Thursday 16 January 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 9 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 69% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.45. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 48 games and Al-Fateh's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
69%
1.45
17%
5.79
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.46
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
9%
11.62
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
1%
84.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.01 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.77 PPG on a 43W 4D 1L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Fateh's form line: 13W 12D 23L from 48 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.91 PPG from their last 23 home games (22W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 5D 12L from their last 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.92 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.44 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 75%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al-Fateh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 43W 4D 1L in their last 48 games (2.77 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 13W 12D 23L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.91 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the most recent 7 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Hilal Saudi FC 9-0 Al-Fateh.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 9, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 56%, Al-Fateh at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 74% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 78% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 74% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 78% of Al-Fateh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 9-0 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 9-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.45 xG and Al-Fateh 1.01 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 9-0 for 9 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 6.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.52 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fateh attack 0.80 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, Al-Fateh 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.77 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 9 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 9 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.