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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability β€” Sunday 13 August 2023

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer β€” 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Sunday 13 August 2023. Incheon United vs Daegu FC led the list at 75% in the K League 1. The shortlist runs from 75% down to 57%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

Serie A supplies four of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the under 2.5 goals market — 55%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only β€” not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

#1 K League 1 Β· South-Korea 75%
Incheon United
3 : 1 FT
Daegu FC
Win 36%
Draw 37%
Win 27%
Under 2.5 75% BTTS No 66%
#2 Superettan Β· Sweden 72%
Vasteras SK FK
3 : 2 FT
Helsingborg
βœ“ Win 51%
Draw 32%
Win 17%
Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 67% Vasteras SK FK Clean Sheet 55%
#3 Serie A Β· Brazil 70%
Atletico-MG
1 : 0 FT
Bahia
βœ“ Win 48%
Draw 32%
Win 20%
✓ Under 2.5 70% ✓ BTTS No 64%
#4 Ekstraklasa Β· Poland 66%
Puszcza Niepołomice
1 : 1 FT
Legia Warszawa
Win 39%
Draw 30%
Win 31%
✓ Under 2.5 66% BTTS No 59%
#5 Super League Β· China 66%
Henan Jianye
1 : 0 FT
Tianjin Teda
Win 32%
Draw 34%
Win 34%
✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 56%
#6 Serie A Β· Brazil 65%
Flamengo
1 : 1 FT
Sao Paulo
Win 52%
Draw 29%
Win 19%
✓ Under 2.5 65% BTTS No 61%
#7 Serie A Β· Brazil 64%
Botafogo
3 : 1 FT
Internacional
βœ“ Win 64%
Draw 26%
Win 11%
Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 67% Botafogo Clean Sheet 60%
#8 Serie A Β· Brazil 64%
Fortaleza EC
4 : 0 FT
Santos
βœ“ Win 53%
Draw 28%
Win 19%
Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 60%
#9 Primeira Liga Β· Portugal 62%
Rio Ave
2 : 0 FT
Chaves
βœ“ Win 40%
Draw 29%
Win 31%
✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 56%
#10 Jupiler Pro League Β· Belgium 61%
St. Truiden
0 : 1 FT
Anderlecht
Win 47%
Draw 28%
Win 25%
✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 56%
#11 Allsvenskan Β· Sweden 61%
IFK Goteborg
2 : 1 FT
Djurgardens IF
βœ“ Win 42%
Draw 29%
Win 29%
Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 55%
#12 La Liga Β· Spain 60%
Celta Vigo
0 : 2 FT
Osasuna
Win 46%
Draw 29%
Win 25%
✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 55%
#13 Veikkausliiga Β· Finland 60%
Ilves
0 : 3 FT
KuPS
Win 19%
Draw 30%
βœ“ Win 51%
Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 55%
#14 Super League Β· China 59%
Wuhan Three Towns
1 : 2 FT
Shanghai Shenhua
Win 40%
Draw 32%
Win 29%
Under 2.5 59%
#15 Primeira Liga Β· Portugal 59%
Arouca
4 : 3 FT
Estoril
βœ“ Win 49%
Draw 27%
Win 24%
Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 55%
#16 Super League Β· China 59%
Nantong Zhiyun
0 : 1 FT
Beijing Guoan
Win 26%
Draw 31%
βœ“ Win 43%
✓ Under 2.5 59%
#17 Premier League Β· Ukraine 57%
Minai
1 : 1 FT
Dnipro-1
Win 22%
Draw 26%
Win 52%
✓ Under 2.5 57% BTTS No 55%
#18 Czech Liga Β· Czech-Republic 57%
Pardubice
2 : 1 FT
Karviná
βœ“ Win 51%
Draw 29%
Win 20%
Under 2.5 57% BTTS No 53%
#19 Premier League Β· Ukraine 57%
Kryvbas KR
2 : 0 FT
LNZ Cherkasy
Win 35%
Draw 28%
Win 38%
✓ Under 2.5 57%
#20 K League 1 Β· South-Korea 57%
Pohang Steelers
1 : 1 FT
Gwangju FC
Win 49%
Draw 29%
Win 22%
✓ Under 2.5 57%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Under 2.5 Goals β€” common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 13 August 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Incheon United vs Daegu FC at 75% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.