Atletico-MG 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atletico-MG at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico-MG vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto plays host to Atletico-MG versus Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico-MG have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico-MG have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bahia (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Serie A this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Atletico-MG against 1.10 for Bahia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Atletico-MG 2W, Bahia 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with Atletico-MG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico-MG 50% versus Bahia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico-MG 39% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.21 xG and Bahia 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 0.905 / defence 1.118 | Bahia attack 0.622 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 0.997. Data: 56 Atletico-MG games / 18 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 48% | Draw 32% | Bahia 20%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Bahia 5.00. Atletico-MG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atletico-MG 60% | Bahia 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 48% | Draw 32% | Bahia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Atletico-MG 1.21 / Bahia 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 0.905 / def 1.118 | Bahia attack 0.622 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.332 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Bahia xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Bahia kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Bahia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Bahia?
Atletico-MG 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Bahia part of?
Atletico-MG vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 48% chance of winning, Bahia a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Atletico-MG and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Bahia?
Record (2 meetings): Atletico-MG 2W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Atletico-MG and Bahia in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Bahia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atletico-MG's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.62x) against Atletico-MG's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
48%
2.10
32%
3.09
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
1.91
0.69
Bahia xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.69 for Bahia, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico-MG's recent record stands at 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 8L across 18 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Atletico-MG against 1.00 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico-MG have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico-MG are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico-MG and Bahia in coming into this match?
Atletico-MG have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Bahia have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico-MG at home or Bahia away?
Atletico-MG's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico-MG at home: 1.12 PPG; Bahia away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Atletico-MG or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bahia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico-MG won 3-0 on 25 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico-MG have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Atletico-MG
2
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 4, Bahia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Atletico-MG and Bahia?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico-MG 75%, Bahia 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atletico-MG) and 25% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Bahia in 38%; Bahia in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico-MG play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Atletico-MG's recent matches and 25% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico-MG vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atletico-MG's recent games and 25% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico-MG and Bahia tend to score early?
Atletico-MG have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bahia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico-MG edge out Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Bahia 1-0 at Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.21 xG and Bahia 0.69 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Bahia attack 0.62 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 48% | Draw 32% | Bahia 20%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 39%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico-MG's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico-MG 1.33 PPG, Bahia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico-MG win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.